2.02 K Mike Nugent (NYJ)

[Preds]

A Kicker at pick # 20?

A pricey pick to spend on a kicker no doubt, but here's my logic (if you can call it that). If anyone could afford to burn an early pick on Nuge, it was me. I've already landed 3 solid players in Caddy Williams, Mark Clayton, and Heath Miller. 2 of those 3 (Caddy and Heath) are going straight to my active roster and will provide immediate help. Nugent will do the same.

When I traded down from 1.13 for the 2.01 and 2.04, my targets were Heath Miller at 2.1, and Nugent at 2.4. I got nervous Miller might not fall, so moved back up to 1.16, but was able to retain the 2.1 which I then decided I'd use on Nuge. With Moats still on the table though, I decided I had to field offers, but didn't want to slide too far. Matt offered me the 2.5 and his 3.5 but I was worried Jake might take Nuge on me at 2.4, so I actually took somewhat less from Joe to slide 1 spot and still guarentee I got Nuge.

After the Manning trade, I had to change strategies immensly. I'm now super tight against the cap. So tight in fact, that after I promote Eli and Tatum, as well as my 3 draftees mentioned above, I'll have all of 130 cb's to play with. I'll still need to pickup a K in FA, and then I'll be running a tight 16 player roster with no room in the cap, and liittle depth. We'll see how this plays out.

Anyhow, I like the Nugent pick for other factors as well...

• He's going to be locked up for cheap for 5 years... in the 5th year he'll only be making 161 cb's (K's do not have the incentive bonus clause, nor should they).
• He's confident and extremely level headed (and not in an arrogant cocky way). He's also a leader. So much so that he was not only Team Captain at Ohio State, but also regarded as their #1 leader in the lockeroom..
• He's got great range and accuracy (over 80% for his college career), and 8 50+ yard FG's in college.
• He's a clutch kicker, he thrives under the pressue.
• I like the offense he's going to. The Jets desperately wanted to improve at Kicker, so much so they spent the 44th pick in the draft on him. Unlike Janikowski who went in the 1st to the Raiders many years ago, this kid is not a headcase.
• He's proven he can kick in cold weather and the elements.
• The one knock against him that I've read... he's too intense, and thus teams worry he could get hurt in Kick coverage. Umm, OK, I can deal with that, I love a kicker that wants to play all phases of the game.

Anyhow, I warmly welcome Nuge to the Preds, I look forward to him being a key element of our future success in the Frenzy.

We're also proud to have Nuge be the highest drafted Kicker in Frenzy history at pick #20 (BTW, I've seen him taken as early as 16 in some drafts, though the late 20's seems to be the norm).

[Nittany Dodgers]

I like how you rip other teams for taking players too early, irregardless of team need, but feel justified in using those reasons to back up your very own reach. Way to be a hypocrite, Mike. :clap

[Preds]

Originally Posted by Nittany Dodgers

I like how you rip other teams for taking players too early, irregardless of team need, but feel justified in using those reasons to back up your very own reach. Way to be a hypocrite, Mike. :clap

Hehe, sometimes those rips are an intentional smokescreen. Did I reach, no doubt. But Nugent is also a very logical pick when you look at all the facts!

[Royal Hawaiian Opihi]

Originally Posted by Preds

A Kicker at pick # 20?

• He's going to be locked up for cheap for 5 years... in the 5th year he'll only be making 161 cb's (K's do not have the incentive bonus clause, nor should they).

Glad your excited about the pick. Could indeed be a solid roster spot for you for years to come...


Then again... I'm betting that I can find a kicker in 5 years for under 161cbs, that will still be in the top 10.

[Jersey]

He's a bum...period....kickers are a dime a dozen along with kicking in the Meadowlands......I cant remember a kicker ever being a stud in NY

[Nittany Dodgers]

Originally Posted by Preds

Hehe, sometimes those rips are an intentional smokescreen. Did I reach, no doubt. But Nugent is also a very logical pick when you look at all the facts!

Whatever helps you sleep at night, man.

[Liquid Swords]

Originally Posted by Nittany Dodgers

Whatever helps you sleep at night, man.

[Preds]

Originally Posted by Royal Hawaiian Opihi

Glad your excited about the pick. Could indeed be a solid roster spot for you for years to come...


Then again... I'm betting that I can find a kicker in 5 years for under 161cbs, that will still be in the top 10.

Oh Jim, that cuts DEEP

One thing I do know, a solid Kicker has been a part of my Frenzy success every year. And while I could probably go out and buy a top 10 Kicker for 175 or so, I don't have the cb's to do that this year. So this is a need pick, that also has longeterm benefits. Plus, looking at the draft board, just how many players remaining out there can have the immediate impact that Nugent can.

Great, draft a Moats, or a Rodgers... they'll sit on your Taxi Squad for 1-2 years, and maybe give you 3 years of active roster production. I'll get 5 out of Nuge.

I love the pick. Sometimes you have to think outside the box to be a champ... some call it insanity... we'll see who's right!

[Royal Hawaiian Opihi]

Things to look forward to in the Frenzy Fantasy Football Season:
- Opening Weekend in the NFL...
- Frenzy Playoffs...
- Championship Game (okay, Championship Trophy!)
- RFA bidding...
- Frenzy Rookie Draft...
- Ragging on Mike for one of his picks...

Sometimes it's the little things in life that bring us the most joy...

[Flaxwless]

haha

[Nittany Dodgers]

Originally Posted by Preds

I love the pick. Sometimes you have to think outside the box to be a champ... some call it insanity... we'll see who's right!

yes, I'm sure if you win this year (or any of the next five), Nugent will have played a crucial role.

Let's look at those historical Preds post season games, and the crucial role the kickers have played.

2004, 2nd round, Predators lost to Bay Area Bloodsucking Insects 119 to 96.65, despite Jason Elam's 12.2 points.
2002, 2nd round, Predators defeat Hudson Valley Undead 118.55 to 73.6, thanks in no small part the Jason Elam's 4 points.
2003 1st round, Predators defeat Brain Dead Squirrel Chasers 163.95 to 139.9 behind Jason Elam's 13.7 points.
2003 2nd Round, Predators defeat Royal Hawaiian Opihi 169.65 to 89.95, behind Jason Elam's 7 points.
2004 1st round, Predators defeat Nittany Dodgers 170.25 to 123.15 with Ryan Longwells' 5.5 points playing a crucial role.
2004 2nd round, Predators lost to Wonder Mutts 156.1 to 109.05, despite Ryan Longwell's 11.2 points.

So what we see is that the kicker has not played a role whatsoever in the outcome of 6 post season games. Adam Vinatieri to the Patriots does not equal {insert kicker's name} to the Predators.

[Preds]

Originally Posted by Nittany Dodgers

yes, I'm sure if you win this year (or any of the next five), Nugent will have played a crucial role.

Let's look at those historical Preds post season games, and the crucial role the kickers have played.

2004, 2nd round, Predators lost to Bay Area Bloodsucking Insects 119 to 96.65, despite Jason Elam's 12.2 points.
2002, 2nd round, Predators defeat Hudson Valley Undead 118.55 to 73.6, thanks in no small part the Jason Elam's 4 points.
2003 1st round, Predators defeat Brain Dead Squirrel Chasers 163.95 to 139.9 behind Jason Elam's 13.7 points.
2003 2nd Round, Predators defeat Royal Hawaiian Opihi 169.65 to 89.95, behind Jason Elam's 7 points.
2004 1st round, Predators defeat Nittany Dodgers 170.25 to 123.15 with Ryan Longwells' 5.5 points playing a crucial role.
2004 2nd round, Predators lost to Wonder Mutts 156.1 to 109.05, despite Ryan Longwell's 11.2 points.

So what we see is that the kicker has not played a role whatsoever in the outcome of 6 post season games. Adam Vinatieri to the Patriots does not equal {insert kicker's name} to the Predators.

Interesting, but should we see how the kickers have impacted regular season records (which get you into the playoffs)? Go ahead stat boy. Prove me wrong.

[Flaxwless]

:Owned


Oooooo!

[Brain Dead Squirrel Chasers]

opcorn

[Nittany Dodgers]

Originally Posted by Preds

Interesting, but should we see how the kickers have impacted regular season records (which get you into the playoffs)? Go ahead stat boy. Prove me wrong.

That took one minute to do. Do you want me to look at your kicker histories (which is really irrelevant, unless I compare it to league averages), or should I look at updated the SAC'D rules?

[Preds]

Originally Posted by Nittany Dodgers

That took one minute to do. Do you want me to look at your kicker histories (which is really irrelevant, unless I compare it to league averages), or should I look at updated the SAC'D rules?

Whichever task you prefer to waste your time on first!

Since we're talking kicker history, I think you should be analyzing the impact of kickers on every Frenzy team and game, that's the only way to get a true guage. I look forward to your thorough and in-depth report. ;)

[Nittany Dodgers]

Originally Posted by Preds

Whichever task you prefer to waste your time on first!

Since we're talking kicker history, I think you should be analyzing the impact of kickers on every Frenzy team and game, that's the only way to get a true guage. I look forward to your thorough and in-depth report. ;)

That's what I meant when I said just looking at your team was worthless unless I look at the league averages. I'll put together a comprehensive report of kicker impact on regular season games. Why don't you post an announcement that the SAC'D veteran auction will be delayed for 7 weeks or so until I can finish this report.

[Flaxwless]

Originally Posted by Nittany Dodgers

That's what I meant when I said just looking at your team was worthless unless I look at the league averages. I'll put together a comprehensive report of kicker impact on regular season games. Why don't you post an announcement that the SAC'D veteran auction will be delayed for 7 weeks or so until I can finish this report.

I have a feeling kickers are pretty irrelevent in the grand scheme of things..

[Preds]

Originally Posted by Nittany Dodgers

That's what I meant when I said just looking at your team was worthless unless I look at the league averages. I'll put together a comprehensive report of kicker impact on regular season games. Why don't you post an announcement that the SAC'D veteran auction will be delayed for 7 weeks or so until I can finish this report.

ROFLMAO Sounds great! ;)

[Liquid Swords]

In reference to The Treasure of the Sierra Madre:

Kickers, to god-damned hell with kickers! We have no kickers. In fact, we don't need kickers. I don't have to show you any stinking kickers, you god-damned cabron and ching' tu madre! Come out there from that shit-hole of yours. I have to speak to you.

[Royal Hawaiian Opihi]

Originally Posted by Royal Hawaiian Opihi

Things to look forward to in the Frenzy Fantasy Football Season:

- Ragging on Mike for one of his picks...

Like I was saying... ;)

[Nittany Dodgers]

Originally Posted by Preds

ROFLMAO Sounds great! ;)

OK, I guess it wasn't that hard to do. Plus, to motivation to prove you wrong once again has provided me with the following data:

Percentage of wins where winning team's kicker score was greater than the margin of victory:

Freedom 47%
Insects 33%
Ragers 28%
Mutts 27%
Opihi 27%
Waste 22%
Dodgers 17%
Undead 16%
Squirrel Chasers 15%
Predators 15%
Combined Swords and Derby Cars* 11%
Leage Average 21%

So, Mike, it actually looks like the kicker plays less of a role in your success than the vast majority of teams in the Frenzy.

If you think the above penalizes you since you lead the league in wins, the total number of games decided by the kicker are as follows:

Insects-9
Freedom-8
Opihi-8
Ragers-7
Mutts-7
Predators-6
Cards/Swords/etc-6
Dodgers-5
Undead-5
Chasers-5
Waste-4

So even by this metric, you are only average (with the average being 5.8). Yep, kickers sure have played a huge role.

*I wanted to do this quick and didn't want to go through who all their preceeding teams were

[Ypsilanti Undead]

Originally Posted by Nittany Dodgers

I like how you rip other teams for taking players too early, irregardless of team need, but feel justified in using those reasons to back up your very own reach. Way to be a hypocrite, Mike. :clap

No, my favorite trick of Mike's is when you steal a pick he was targeting, then he immediately posts how, on second thought, the guy he was forced to take is actually better than the one he wanted.

(And it's even worse when it turns out he's right, e.g. Josh Redd and Javon Walker....)

[Royal Hawaiian Opihi]

Originally Posted by Nittany Dodgers

So, Mike, it actually looks like the kicker plays less of a role in your success than the vast majority of teams in the Frenzy.

So, maybe that's WHY Mike needed to get his stud-kicker at this spot in the draft!?!?!

Actually, Brian... great stuff! Way cool.

But you know what gang... we're spending way too much time posting about a kicker, don't you think!?!

[Liquid Swords]

Originally Posted by Nittany Dodgers

Percentage of wins where winning team's kicker score was greater than the margin of victory:

Freedom 47%
Insects 33%
Ragers 28%
Mutts 27%
Opihi 27%
Waste 22%
Dodgers 17%
Undead 16%
Squirrel Chasers 15%
Predators 15%
Combined Swords and Derby Cars* 11%
Leage Average 21%

Like I said, we don't need no stinkin' kickers!

[Flaxwless]

Originally Posted by Nittany Dodgers

OK, I guess it wasn't that hard to do. Plus, to motivation to prove you wrong once again has provided me with the following data:

Percentage of wins where winning team's kicker score was greater than the margin of victory:

Freedom 47%
Insects 33%
Ragers 28%
Mutts 27%
Opihi 27%
Waste 22%
Dodgers 17%
Undead 16%
Squirrel Chasers 15%
Predators 15%
Combined Swords and Derby Cars* 11%
Leage Average 21%

So, Mike, it actually looks like the kicker plays less of a role in your success than the vast majority of teams in the Frenzy.

If you think the above penalizes you since you lead the league in wins, the total number of games decided by the kicker are as follows:

Insects-9
Freedom-8
Opihi-8
Ragers-7
Mutts-7
Predators-6
Cards/Swords/etc-6
Dodgers-5
Undead-5
Chasers-5
Waste-4

So even by this metric, you are only average (with the average being 5.8). Yep, kickers sure have played a huge role.

*I wanted to do this quick and didn't want to go through who all their preceeding teams were

Maybe I shouldve been the one to draft Nuge.

[Liquid Swords]

Originally Posted by Flaxwless

Maybe I shouldve been the one to draft Nuge.

You'd just lose more games with Nuge. Ain't no stinkin' kicker gonna kick well in the Meadowlands....except Vinitieri...maybe.

[Preds]

Brian,

I love the fact that you found it necessary to run Kicker stats. Great stuff (regardless of your flawed results).

I also think it's hysterical that 1 pick has prompted such a sharp reaction. I've gotten enough laughs out of you guys on this pick to make it totally worthwhile!

I'm looking forward to Nuge kicking 3 or 4 long FG's against you when I roll over you in week 4. Conveniently, the Jets play Baltimore that week (perfect ;)).

Anyhow, back to your regularly scheduled program. I hope you all enjoyed Preds hours of laughs.

Bring on the Regular season... I'm ready to kick some a**!

[Philadelphia Freedom]

Brian- where your numbers just for last season? If so it looks like Vanderjagt and Keading did a pretty good job. Of course now that I look at it has to be for a longer period than one year since I have never won 8 games in a season.

BTW, my company is now blocking the Preds site (but not the forums). This may be a problem for in season roster submission.

[Nittany Dodgers]

Originally Posted by Preds

Brian,

I love the fact that you found it necessary to run Kicker stats. Great stuff (regardless of your flawed results).

I also think it's hysterical that 1 pick has prompted such a sharp reaction. I've gotten enough laughs out of you guys on this pick to make it totally worthwhile!

I'm looking forward to Nuge kicking 3 or 4 long FG's against you when I roll over you in week 4. Conveniently, the Jets play Baltimore that week (perfect ;)).

Anyhow, back to your regularly scheduled program. I hope you all enjoyed Preds hours of laughs.

Bring on the Regular season... I'm ready to kick some a**!

While this wasn't the most extensive analysis I could have done, I think any other factor included in the study would have yielded similar results. Please inform me as to why my results are flawed. Kickers just haven't made a huge impact in your overall success (relatively speaking), and I defy you to prove me otherwise.

As far as spending too much time on this one pick, I'd love to see another one made to overanalyze. Who's on the clock, anyways?