Fantasy Baseball

[Philadelphia Freedom]

Anyone have any information on how to quantify a players' quality for fantasy baseball? I joined a keeper league this year and I am trying to evaluate my players and determine how they stack up against other players (in general or at specific positions). I have a feeling that there must be a way to put a value on each player (hitters/pitchers) to compare them. However, if anyone already has something I would appreciate it. Thanks!

[Burt the Butcher]

Just like fantasy football, it all depends on your scoring system.

[Philadelphia Freedom]

Originally Posted by Burt the Butcher

Just like fantasy football, it all depends on your scoring system.

Good point sorry about that. It is a 6X6 league (16 teams):

Hitters: Runs, HR's, RBI's, SB, AVG, OPS
Pitchers: W, K's, SV, Holds, WHIP, ERA

It is cumulative numbers for your starters for the season. Daily start 1 player at each position and 1 flex (can play any position). Start 6 pitchers (2 SP, 1 RP and 3 flex pitchers).

The team I took over had no pitching but very solid offense. I have tried to build the pitching and add some depth on offense. Current 3 or 4 depending on the day but first way out of reach so I am trying to position myself for 2009. You can keep as many of your 25 players so I am trying to determine who to consider keeping (obvisiously will not decide until next Spring).

I can post my roster if that would be of any assistance.

Thanks.

[Philadelphia Freedom]

Here is my first cut at this. Found some stuff that Bill James did and figured that was as good a place as any to start. I am guessing that this will need to be tweaked (for example I am not sure I care if the player struck out or flew out so the strikeout penalty might need to be removed).

Anyone have something like this or thoughts on this?

Hitter Value:
Add 1 point for singles, 2 for doubles, 3 for triples and 4 for HR’s
Add 1 point for each RBI and walk
Add 2.5 per each steal
Subtract 1 point for each caught stealing
Subtract .2 for each strikeout
Subtract .5 for each at bat

Pitcher Value:
Add 1 point for each out recorded
Add 1 point for each K
Add 2 points for each W
Add 3 points for each H or Sv
Subtract 1 point for each hit or walk allowed
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed
Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed

[Burt the Butcher]

That looks pretty good...may have to use that myself.

Of course you also have to add in the fact that certain stats are harder to come by than other, like SB's and Saves/Holds in pitching. I have not done well in my 5x5 roto league, so I am probably not much help....I might have to try this formula out to see how that works...of course you are soley basing these numbers on past production, which has nothing to do with what that player WILL do...

[Philadelphia Freedom]

Burt- I thought of the same thing (about SB’s, Holds and Saves) as I started to plug some numbers in. I gave some weight to those things and I have been tweaking it because Relievers were coming up as 4 of the top 5 players (and leaving position players in the dust).

As for using this to project for the future I would think you could apply it to your projections (or projections that you get from a website) to try and evaluate players for the coming season.

Anyhow, here is where I have it now (though pitchers and still relievers seem to get a little more credit than might be appropriate). Also, does not take into account that a good catcher might be more valuable then a good outfielder but I am guessing you can do value based analysis like we do so often with fantasy football.

Hitter Value:
Add 1 point for singles, 2 for doubles, 3 for triples and 4 for HR’s
Add 1 point for each RBI and walk
Add 2.5 per each steal
Subtract 1 point for each caught stealing
Subtract .2 for each strikeout
Subtract .5 for each at bat

Pitcher Value:
Add 1 point for each out recorded
Add 1 point for each K
Add 2 points for each W
Add 2.5 points for each H or Sv
Subtract 1.5 point for each hit or walk allowed
Subtract 2 points for each blown save
Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed

Here are some sample players (some I picked from the league leader boards and some are on my roster):

Tim Lincecum => 313.1
Joakim Soria => 292.3
Francisco Rodriguez => 282.0
Brad Lidge => 289.3
Jonathan Papelbon => 282.5
Roy Halladay => 278.5
Albert Pujols => 274.3
Cliff Lee => 268.3
CC Sabathia => 262.8
Grady Sizemore => 257.1
Lance Berkman => 250.3
Johan Santana => 229.3
Hanley Ramirez => 225.2
Matt Holliday => 224.9
Manny Ramírez => 223.0
Alex Rodriguez => 220.9
Cole Hamels => 217.8
Billy Wagner => 201.0
Ryan Howard => 198.5
Nate McLouth => 196.3
Chase Utley => 179.2
Jimmy Rollins => 172.8
Brian Roberts => 168.3
Alfonso Soriano => 161.3
Brandon Webb => 161.1
Dustin Pedroia => 155.9
Chad Billingsley => 142.1
Jermaine Dye => 141.9
Joe Mauer => 125.1
Geovany Soto => 124.0
Daisuke Matsuzaka => 123.6
Jacoby Ellsbury => 115.6
Jorge Cantú => 109.7
Derek Jeter => 77.9
A.J. Burnett => 67.3
Joe Saunders => 45.0

Overall it seems to reflect the things that I am looking for in terms of categories that are counted in my league. I will probably tweak it in the offseason (and maybe look at some historical seasons to benchmark).

[Philadelphia Freedom]

Okay, the prior post I was giving the relief pitcher 2 points per K (as opposed to the 1 that meant to) which is why that had such high numbers. Here are all the numbers corrected (my players have their team and position which highlights why my pitching sucks but my offense has been solid):

Tim Lincecum => 313.1
Roy Halladay => 278.5
Albert Pujols (StL - 1B) => 274.3
Cliff Lee => 268.3
CC Sabathia => 262.8
Grady Sizemore => 257.1
Lance Berkman => 250.3
Johan Santana => 229.3
Joakim Soria => 228.3
Hanley Ramirez => 225.2
Matt Holliday => 224.9
Manny Ramírez (LAD - OF) => 223.0
Alex Rodriguez => 220.9
Cole Hamels => 217.8
Jonathan Papelbon => 210.5
Francisco Rodriguez => 208.0
Brad Lidge => 205.3
Ryan Howard => 198.5
Nate McLouth (Pit - OF) => 196.3
Chase Utley => 179.2
Jimmy Rollins => 172.8
Brian Roberts (Bal - 2B) => 168.3
Alfonso Soriano => 161.3
Brandon Webb => 161.1
Dustin Pedroia => 155.9
J.P. Howell (TB- RP) => 153.8
Chad Billingsley => 142.1
Jermaine Dye (CWS - OF) => 141.9
Joey Devine (Oak - RP) => 141.6
Billy Wagner => 135.5
Brad Ziegler (Oak - RP) => 130.5
Jose Arredondo (LAA - RP) => 129.3
Joe Mauer => 125.1
Geovany Soto (ChC - C) => 124.0
Daisuke Matsuzaka => 123.6
Jacoby Ellsbury => 115.6
Jorge Cantú (Fla - 1B,3B) => 109.7
John Danks (CWS - SP) => 103.5
J.J. Hardy (Mil - SS) => 97.0
Denard Span (Min - OF) => 87.4
Derek Jeter => 77.9
A.J. Burnett => 67.3
Jeremy Guthrie (Bal - SP,RP) DL => 61.1
Orlando Cabrera (CWS - SS) => 54.4
Joe Saunders => 45.0
Alexi Casilla (Min - 2B) => 44.0
Scott Lewis (Cle - SP) => 42.0
Martín Prado (Atl - 1B,2B,3B) => 37.6
Billy Butler (KC - 1B,OF) => 26.5
Emmanuel Burriss (SF - 2B,SS) => 22.7
Jesse Litsch (Tor - SP) => 17.5
Mike Pelfrey (NYM - SP) => 3.6
Andy Sonnanstine (TB - SP) => -14.0
Manny Parra (Mil - SP,RP) => -35.0
Dana Eveland (Oak - SP) => -51.5

[Burt the Butcher]

That looks pretty good...now if the prognosticators can get better at predicting the future, we'll be golden!!

[Philadelphia Freedom]

I actually found a database on line (free) that I was able to download and play around with the formula's some more. It only goes through 2007 but it looks like it gets updated in December with the prior years stats. Again it won't handle projecting the future but if the formula's seem valid then you can bump up your projections against it to make some headway.

As I play with it I will post some historical numbers since I think the ability to compare and contrast will allow me to further tweak to make sure that things are being weighed correctly.