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Originally Posted by Preds
I believe I was in support of a weighted lottery last year, and I remain that way today. To me I'd prefer to see a system like the NHL or NBA, where all non-playoff teams have a % shot at moving up, but no team can move up more than say 3-5 spots (depending on their rank). Additionally, you weight the percentages to greatly increase the chances of the teams with the worse records to move up.
With this system, no team drops more than 1 spot, but the 8th worst team can jump as many as 5 spots into the top 3 if they get drawn, the 7th could also jump 5 spots to to the 2nd pick, the 6th best team could jump say 4 spots, also to the 2nd, the 5th best team could jump 3 spots (again to the 2nd), and teams 4 to 2 can move up to the 1 seed.
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I don't think this adequately addresses the tanking aspect. While it does not assure the worst team of having the first pick, is still assures the worst team of having the best chance at the worst pick. I think we need to build in an incentive for teams to win at the end of the year.
The way I'm thinking now, I would put the teams into three buckets. The bottom four, the middle four, and the playoff teams. For the bottom four teams, they can have some sort of lottery for the #1 pick, based partially on their record, but, I think there should be a built in incentive to win. Something like getting additional balls in the hopper for each win after week x (week 7? The divisional game weeks at the end of the year? wins after the soft cap kicks in?) So that teams who phone it in at the end of the year, stop looking to sign free agents, and trade away productive players all which affect the competitive balance for the remaining teams, end up hurting their own chances in the rookie draft the following year.
The middle four teams could be ranked the same way, but I'd leave the playoff teams ordered as is.
Those are my quick initial thoughts on it. I don't think a straight lottery is enough disincentive to prevent tanking. I think we need to build in an incentive to keep winning.