[Popes]

I suspect most people will think I’m making a bad trade anytime I trade a first round pick because of how I view the draft and its relation to team-building. First round picks is not my preferred way to build my team. I spoke a bit about “on the cusp” players in the other thread, but here’s a bit more explanation on my view, because it's really key to why I make the trades that I make.

A first round pick has to clear many hoops to become a worthy FF starter:
1. have skills that can actually translate from college to the NFL
2. make their NFL squad w/o getting cut
3. work their way up the NFL depth chart
4. eventually crack the starting NFL lineup
5. advance to a position where they can actually get the bulk of starter touches to even to be in a position to put up enough FF points
6. and finally, actually perform as needed.

I prefer to trade for guys who have already cleared the first 5 hurdles. All that remains is the last one. I look at it this way: why would I want to draft a guy who has to clear 6 hurdles (when most fail to), when I can take a guy who's cleared 5 and is 80% of the way there? I look at it like odds in poker. You never know if that card will hit, but all you can do if play the highest percentage game and in the long-run, you’ll be successful. This is why I traded the 1.1 for Benson and Davis. This is why I’d rather have Holmes in this deal than the 1st I gave up to get Smith. I realize that most people in this league probably think Holmes is not even worth a first (maybe same for Benson and Davis). I think each of them is worth more than a first. As always, we’ll find out down the road who’s right. This is my first time playing in a dynasty league, so maybe I’m way off. But that’s how I’m building until reality tells me I’m wrong and then I’ll adapt.

OK, on to this specific trade.

IMO, I gave up a 1st, a 2nd/3rd, and B. Jacobs for Smith (the QBs are a wash, given their salaries). Bear in mind that while I traded a 2008 1st away (mine, which with the acquisition of Smith, looked to fall in the 1.7-1.12 range) and got a 2007 1.13 back (and it was a deep draft). That's a 2nd/3rd to account for that difference. So, I started with a baseline of Smith = 1st, 2nd/3rd, and Jacobs.

Here’s how I equate that to the trade I just made:

S. Holmes = the 1st
Brian’s 2nd = the 2nd/3rd
T. Jackson = B. Jacobs

I was hesitant to deal Smith and break up the “Win in 2007” lineup I had constructed, but I think I can regain the majority of those starter points elsewhere in my lineup and I liked the idea of increasing my “future plans” from just Benson/Davis (which I had limited it to, by trading all my higher draft picks) to Benson/Davis/Holmes/T. Jackson.