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Originally Posted by Royal Hawaiian Opihi
I've come to believe that anything beyond a first round pick in our rookie is basically not worth a whole lot. Sure, guys can get lucky and draft a Mike Bell in the 4th round (oh yah, that was me!)... but for the most part, anything past the first round falls into the "let's hope something happens in the future" category.
All this goes to say that I wouldn't be upset with this kind of reformatting. It does change how we bid, though. We definitely need to settle on this BEFORE we designate contract years from this crop of RFAs.
Nice idea...
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I think from year to year, there are about 20 players with a decending solid chance of predictable contributability (if that is a word, or a phrase that makes any sense). After that, the rest of the 2nd round you've got a 50-50 chance of getting a role player. The 3rd round is a 1 in 4 chance of getting someone worthy of being a backup, and the 4th is a total crapshoot.
That said, moving more of the comp picks from the first to later rounds helps the teams drafting in the early 2nd getting those guys that have a better chance to actually contribute.
I shoulda included the charts of what would have happened to the draft picks in the previous RFA periods I looked at, but basically the total picks remained relatively the same, but there were fewer 1st round picks alloted, and more 4th. I like this, because I don't think the compensation should be as big of a part of the decision to match a guy or not as it currently is. I think it weighs too much into the decision (because they are inherintly too valuable) and therefor we give out too many picks.