[Brain Dead Squirrel Chasers]

Originally posted by Nittany Dodgers
OK, I've run the numbers and looked at the salaries. Overall, I think it's a pretty good scale (assuming you agree that the purpose of the scale should be to reward good drafting, while making sure that great players aren't TOO underpriced).

I've analyzed most major players drafted from 1997 to 2002. I had to arbitrarily assign them a draft position. It is not very scientific, but I just assumed all first round draft picks were selected in the frenzy first round in order, the same for all seconds in the second round, and everything after that in the third round. You can adjust their starting salaries by your own assumptions of where you think they would have been drafted, but their bonuses would remain unchanged. The other assumption I made was that all players had 5 year contracts. After looking at the results, the only tweaks I see are that the tight ends are priced way too high, and the wide receivers are a little underpriced. Some major case studdies:

Tony Gonzalez, drafted '97, assumed frenzy pick 1.3. After finishing 19th, 10th, 2nd and first among tight ends, his salary went from 140 his rookie year, to 990 his fifth season. This is a fair market salary, though it should be reduced slightly to offer discount.

Jake Plummer, drafted 2.12 in '97, assumed frenzy pick 2.2. After finishing 21st, 6th, 27th, and 19th among QBs, his salary went from 270 as a rookie to 647 his fifth year. Probably overpriced, but got a big bump from finishing 6th his second season.

Corey Dillon, drafted 2.13 in '97, assumed frenzy 2.3 pick. Finished 8th, 17th, 11th, 17th. His salary went from 360 as a rookie to 1260 his 5th season. I find this to be a big bargain for a player that would have been a started in each of his five seasons.

Peyton Manning, drafted #1 in '98, assumed #1 pick. This was one of only 4 players drafted since '97 to reach the max salaries I proposed for Rookies. Manning finished 9th, 3rd, 3rd and 3rd his first four seasons. He maxed out in the 4th year, but with no ceiling, he would have reached a salary of 1650 his 5th season.

Randy Moss was another of the 4 players to reach his ceiling. With not ceiling he would have had a 5th year salary of 1940 (he finished 1st overall among WRs twice).

Edgerrin James, drafted 4th overall in 99, assumed frenzy pick 1.4. Edge finished 1st, 2nd, 32nd, and 24th for a 5th year salary of 1839. Rickey Williams, the next pick, finished 27th, 18th, 8th, and 2nd for a 5th year salary of 1356.

I've got a full excel spreadsheet I can email to anyone who is interested in seeing it (I don't believe I know how to attach one to the website).

Great work Dodgers! Thanks for putting this all together! Now I'm assuming you did the case study based on your proposed salary scale? Can we see the numbers based on our current system to compare? I would love to see how those picks based on our current salary scale to see if our system is right on, close, or not even in the ballpark.