[Preds]

Week 13 update

As things stand today (with 1 week to play)

1 *Bees (9-4) East Div
2 *Swords (9-4) Central Div
3 Burners (8-5, 74 All Play Wins) West Div
4 Preds (8-5, 92 All Play Wins) WC1 ... 3-1 vs Opihi (2-0), Pirates (1-0)
5 Opihi (8-5, 71 All Play Wins) WC2 ... 1-0 vs Pirates
6 Pirates (7-6, 84 All Play Wins) WC3 (based on All Play Wins)

On the outside looking in:

Roosters (7-6, 60 All Play Wins)
Cards (5-8, 77 All Play Wins)

Eliminated
Freedom (6-7, 64 All Play Wins)
Dogs (5-8, 49 All Play Wins)
Scorpions (3-10, 44 All Play Wins, H2H Win over Chickens)
Chickens (3-10, 43 All Play Wins, H2H Loss to Scoprions)

Things are still complex with 7 teams still within 1-2 games of each other and 1 other team still in the hunt based on All Play. The Bees and Swords clinched playoff births this weekend, the Swords clinched the Central Division, a top 2 seed and a first round bye as well.

The Freedom were eliminated after their loss this week, thus 4 teams have now been eliminated.

The following Scenarios could play out:

Bees (9-4) Win the East with a win over the Preds week 14. A win would also clinch the #1 seed. A loss puts them in the mix for seeds 4 or 5.

Swords (9-4) Win the #1 Seed with a win and a loss by the Bees.

Burners 8-5 (74 All Play Wins) Win the West Division with a win over the Scorpions week 14. A win combined with a Preds win would give the Burners the #2 seed and a first round bye. A win and a Preds loss gives the Burners the #3 seed. A loss and a Roosters win gives the Roosters the West Division and the #3 Seed. Other scenarios depend on Tie-Breaking Scenarios with the Preds (1-0), Pirates (1-0), Opihi (0-1) all of whom could finish 8-6 as well.

Preds (8-5, 92 All Play Wins) A win over the Bees Week 14 gives the Preds the East Division. A win combined with a Burners Loss gives the Preds the #2 seed and a first round bye. A loss leads to a variety of scenarios finishing from 4th to 6th seed (with a slim chance to miss the playoffs outright) depending on wins or losses by the Opihi (2-0), Roosters (0-1), Pirates (1-0) and Burners (0-1). The only scenario that knocks the Preds out of a 4 or 5 seed is a Preds loss with Opihi, Burners, and Roosters wins). In that case, the Preds can still get the 6th seed (based on All Play Wins) with only the Pirates having a chance to catch them (the Pirates 84 AP wins are 8 wins back of the Preds 92 AP wins).

Opihi (8-5, 71 All Play Wins) A win clinches the 4th seed for the Opihi. A loss depends on Tie-Breaking scenarios with the Preds (0-2), Pirates (1-0), Burners (1-0) and Roosters (0-1). A Preds loss and Roosters win would knock the Opihi out.

Pirates (7-6, 84 All Play Wins) The Pirates cannot be anything but the 6th seed based on All Play Wins since they lose all Tie Breaking scenarios with the Preds (0-1), Opihi (0-1), and Burners (0-1) and are not helped by a Roosters win. If the Preds lose, and Opihi, Burners and Roosters win, the Pirates could lose the 6th seed to the Preds who have an 8 win advantage over the Pirates in AP wins. They could also lose the 6th Seed if the Cards overcome their 7 game AP deficit in week 14.

Roosters (7-6, 60 All Play Wins) A Roosters win and Burners loss gives the Roosters the division and the #3 seed. A Roosters win combined with a Burners win, Opihi win and Preds loss gives the Roosters the 5 seed. No other scenarios get the Roosters in the playoffs (at least that I can see).

Cards (5-8, 77 All Play Wins) The Cards have a slim chance to earn the 6th seed, but have to win at least 4 more AP wins than the Pirates in week 14, and NOT have the Preds lose, Opihi win, Burners win and Roosters win.


Aside from the above playoff scenarios, the Chickens clinch the #1 pick in the draft with a loss or Scorpions win.